Back in 2000, we Democrats were told that a vote for Ralph Nader is a vote for George Bush. Now it's three years later, and the opposite will be true for the California recall election. This time the confusion of the electorate will benefit the current Governor of that great state, Gray Davis.

This is how it's working:The frontrunners for the Governorship are fourfold: Davis, Democrat Cruz Bustamante, Ahh-nold(heretofore known as Conan), and a dyed in-the-wool Republcan that nobody will vote for. In other words the main competition is between Bustamante and Conan.

Things are going great for that Austrian accented former bodybuilder. Polls show him running dead even with Bustamante, even a slim lead if the other Republican drops out. The situation may get even better when Conan does his softball appearance on the Howard Stern show, newly christened a "news show" so that the nationally syndicated DJ would not have to interview every other candidate just to get to the one that everyone cares about. Many unfounded parallels to Ronald Reagan are thrown about, as well as countless Terminator Three posters on which every passerby will comment "Hey, you know that guy's running for Governor?"

Now you may think that a vote for Conan is a vote for progress. While I'm usually in favor of this position, I have to say that Nietzche has no place in the orderly succession of a democratically elected government. So far this candidate has skipped out on debates, had very few press conferences, and taken the George W. Bush strategy of glad handing people and shutting up about the issues. Hey, it worked for him, right? When push comes to shove, though, I believe that the California electorate will get in that voting booth and think of some random one-liner-

"Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentation of the women."

"See you at the party, Richter!"

"You're Fired!"

"ARRRGH!!"

-and find him lacking. The all important "Idiot swing vote," impossibly hard to shore up, will also hurt his chances as the thought of Gallagher smashing a watermelon while people in the front row cover themselves in plastic tarp runs through voters minds a second later.

So that leaves Bustamante and the Republican that no one is going to vote for. Since the Republican that nobody will vote for-restricting immigration, cutting taxes, bending over for Karl Rove, etc.-I don't think I need to discuss him that much other than he is the spoiler for a potential Sandahl Bergman Lieutenant Governorship.

And then there was one.

Cruz Bustamante seems like a perfect candidate for the environment. He would be the first Latino governor of California, he's an establishment Democrat, and for some reason he doesn't have the stink of any of California's problems on himself despite being Davis' lieutenant governor. The worst dirt on him they can find is a $2 million contribution from an Indian tribe. Great, right? He's going to fix everything! "Tough love for California?" Bring it on! "An American agenda?" Okay! This guy has a plan!

The problem lies in his message, first of all. He doesn't want to split the vote, but to win he has to split the vote. He has to be timid, to play with kid gloves so that he has a job afterward in case this Governor gig doesn't work out.

The other issue is exactly HOW he's going to fix everything. You don't find that on his website. You don't find it in newspapers more concerned with the human drama of a Lt. Governor running against his boss, Arnold getting hit with an egg, or the prospect of legalizing lap dances within the Governors mansion. It took a little digging(namely looking at half his chart in a picture on USA Today), but mainly the strategy involves raising taxes to the extent that even liberals like me get scared. Remember that this is the state recalling their Governor in part because he doubled the car tax as a way to make up for budget shortfalls. If voters didn't like that, their head is going to explode with Bustamante.

And so I'm calling it. California voters who pay attention will come crawling back to Davis with 50-60% because he's the devil they knew. You think about the alternatives-a guy with really big muscles but without a plan, a republican no one will vote for, and a Democrat you KNOW is just going to piss you off more when he hikes up taxes with focus group tested slogans, and Gray Davis really doesn't seem that bad.

That is, of course, assuming that voters pay attention.

-Sean McCollum