Will he or won’t he? Near the end of 1999, the only questions being asked about Colin Powell were about whether or not he would campaign for the 2000 election. Even when the George Bush became the obvious Republican nominee, the rumors of a possible VP slot for Powell were rampant.

There’s no doubt that Powell has no intention of making a run in 2004; not against Bush. There’s also no doubt that the Democrats will attack Bush on his handling of the war in Iraq. The two questions then are these: Will Powell run in 2008? And will Iraq still be a top of mind issue in that election?

While the press is being roundly criticized whenever it brings up the word “quagmire,” the U.S. will probably still be in Iraq for a pretty long time. At this stage, it’s easy to imagine American troops will still be in the country during the 2008 campaign. It’s also easy to imagine Cheney not running for president that year.

The thornier question is whether or not Powell will be tapped for the nomination, primarily because 2008 is still very far away. In the run-up to 2004, the last thing the American public is likely to be thinking about is yet another presidential campaign. But you can bet your bottom dollar that the Democrats are.

It all depends on who takes the White House in ’04. A year ago, a world without George W. Bush seemed inconceivable. Yet, with the approval ratings dropping it’s just possible that he might not get reelected. If that happens, the Democratic strategy for 2008 will be pretty much set in stone, unless they take the unprecedented step of not backing an incumbent president. But, Bush hasn’t lost yet. There’s still a better than even chance that he’ll be back for another four years. Then what?

Powell was something out of a sweat-soaked nightmare for Democrats; he’s the last person they want to go up against in an election. (For the Republicans, the big worry is Hillary Clinton – but that has more to do with a castration complex than any actual political consideration.)

Plenty of pundits have asked whether or not our nation’s lefties would be able to bring themselves to vote against a black presidential nominee. The general consensus has been that they couldn’t. Which is why the Democratic leadership was worried – Republicans had the opportunity to use liberals own sense of equality against them (if only Powell had agreed to run). But, after the debacle in Iraq, they just might.

If Bush loses the White House, some serious surveying will have to be done to find out exactly why. It could be the economy. Or, it could be the war. If he loses due to his mishandling of the latter, then any prospective Powell campaign would be in trouble. Regardless of the differences he’s had with the Bush administration on Iraq, he’s absolutely, totally for the war, on principal alone if nothing else. Any successful attack against Bush on that score would be equally successful against Powell.

All of this, of course, is just pie in the sky speculation. Bush could win easily. If he does, it will be because the American people didn’t listen to any of the arguments coming from the left – either about the war or any other topic. In this situation, Powell has nothing to worry about. If he chooses to run, the only real opposition he’ll face will be from the other Republican nominees. Certainly, his current stance on the war won’t matter very much.

As the campaign season begins to heat up, we can expect to see Powell stumping very hard indeed for George Bush, given the fact that any presidential aspirations he might have are tied directly to whether or not Bush wins a second term.

-B. C. Silvia